California Today
"Has the Golden State Lost Its Luster?" "Is the California Dream Dead?" So read the rueful headlines upon the early-2021 announcement of California's first-ever population decline (in 2020) and, based on recent census data, the loss of a congressional seat. These articles and similar pieces detailed the supposedly insurmountable obstacles—most notably the high cost of living (especially housing), but also wildfires, drought, crime, traffic congestion, homelessness, COVID-19, and high taxes—fueling out-of-state migration.
So dire were some of the assessments that one might have assumed there was no reason to stay (or come for a visit). This was despite the fact that everything that has lured settlers and tourists from the get-go—among them breathtaking scenery, abundant natural resources, agricultural bounty, and a hospitable climate—remains well in evidence.
Although California, like the rest of the nation and world, faces daunting challenges, the same gloomy predictions (often bearing precisely the same "lost its luster" and "dream dead" headlines) have appeared before: in the middle of the Great Recession (2009), after the first dot-com implosion (2000), all the way back to the gold and silver busts of the 19th century. And guess what? In every instance, the state bounced back, sometimes brilliantly.
Each allegedly ruinous calamity required reinvention, and each time residents rose to the occasion. Based on the past, there's no reason to think that the Golden State won't regain its luster—if it's even been lost.
Population, Potential
California's birth rate and the pace of migration may have slowed, but they're hardly stagnant. For perspective, consider that the current population of just under 40 million (an eighth of the U.S. total) represents a 2.2 million increase between 2010 and 2020, the third-highest after Texas and Florida. While many residents departing California cite the high cost of living, recent transplants tend to perceive the same potential in the state as previous settlers.
Historical Context
By most accounts, the ancestors of California's indigenous peoples migrated from Asia, traversing a land bridge across the Bering Strait that formerly joined what's now Russia and Alaska. Some of these trailblazers continued south to California, flourishing for centuries off the fertile land. Many famous place names—Malibu, Napa, Ojai, Shasta, and Sonoma among them—reflect this heritage.
Millennia later, Spanish explorers ventured north from Mexico searching for gold, with converts to Christianity the quest of 18th-century missionaries. Nineteenth-century miners rushed here from the world over also seeking gold—the state achieved statehood two years after the precious metal's 1848 discovery.
During the 20th century, successive, sometimes overlapping, waves of newcomers followed in their footsteps: real-estate speculators, would-be motion-picture actors and producers, Dust Bowl farmers and migrant workers, Asians fleeing poverty or chasing opportunity, sexual and gender pioneers, artists, dot-commers, and venture capitalists.
Politics
The result is a population that leans toward idealism (some say utopianism)—without necessarily being as liberal as voter-registration statistics might lead one to think. (Democrats hold a 2–1 registration advantage over Republicans, the latter essentially tied with "no party preference.") This is Ronald Reagan's old stomping ground after all, and Herbert Hoover's, and Richard Nixon was born here. If you wander into some inland counties, you may see signs proposing a breakaway, more conservative 51st State of Jefferson. Many residents in these areas supported 2021 efforts to recall Governor Gavin Newsom, a liberal Democrat. (Early summer polls indicated the special-election race might be tight, but the governor prevailed by a substantial margin.)
Demographics
As with politics, despite the stereotype of the blue-eyed, blond surfer, California's population isn't homogeneous either. Latino residents outnumber Whites 39%–36%, with Asians (15%) and African Americans (6%) the next-largest groups. Residents here speak more than 220 languages, making California by far the nation's most linguistically diverse state.
Economics
Back to California's supposedly desperate situation: keep in mind that, in 2021, the Golden State reported a $75 billion budget surplus, hardly numbers to prompt despair and proving the Great Recession doomsayers predicting economic catastrophe way off the mark. California, responsible for 14% of gross domestic product, leads all other states in terms of the income generated by agriculture, tourism, entertainment, and industrial activity. With a gross state product of approximately $3 trillion (median household income about $75,000), by many estimates, California would have the world's fifth-largest economy were it an independent nation.
Still Dreamin'
In mid-2021, dueling state-of-the-state analyses appeared within days of each other. A historian's New York Times opinion piece described the 2020 census numbers and the loss of the seat in Congress as among recent negative "firsts" for California that had "sapped the collective sense of zealous optimism." The historian also predicted "decades of pain" if politicians don't quickly produce solutions to California's pressing problems.
Two days before the Times piece ran, the University of California published a study suggesting pretty much the opposite: that the rate of residents moving out of state is not unusual and isn't something to fret over; that residents, by a 2–1 majority, still believe in the California Dream; and that the state attracts more than half the nation's venture-capital investments, a sign that favorable economic conditions persist.
The naysayers may well be right about California's demise, but if history is any indication, the populace will likely shift gears as necessary. And again the next time it's required.
