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What are the chances of getting a last-minute fare under $500 JFK - Paris?

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I have the use of an apartment in Paris this summer, the last week in July and the first week in August. My daughter and her friend would love to come over, since they would only have to pay for their airfare. But they can't afford to spend more than $450 - $500. Is there a chance they might find an airfare like that - or should they not even think about it? They have signed up for airfare alerts between JFK and Paris, and have also signed up for last-minute deals. I hate to see them get their hopes up if it's really not going to happen!

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