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Probability of flight cancellation?

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Does anyone have information about when/why flights get cancelled?
We're traveling to Europe in the fall. I live in Memphis but it's common for folks to book flights out of Nashville because many times it's cheaper. I'm finding that flights on Kayak are a tiny bit less expensive from Memphis but I'm wondering what the odds are of a flight from Memphis being cancelled as opposed to one from Nashville, where more people could be flying from.
I could be getting paranoid but of course I've been planning the trip for so long and can't stand the thought of missing any of it, not to mention the $$ and vacation time down the drain. (My husband's co-worker lost about 4 days because of his outgoing flight being cancelled.)
Now we know that Delta will be pulling out of Memphis in September and this adds to my fear.
Is there a website that keeps track of these things? Or should I just keep my fingers crossed?
Thoughts anyone?

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