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Northern lights in Iceland in January

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What is the probability of seeing Northern lights in Reykjavik in mid January? I am looking at a package thru Iceland Air for 3 nights in Iceland for a very good price in January 2015. We have been to Iceland before and loved it. We went there in early Sept so did not see northern lights then.
I have looked at the web site http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Aurora/ and it looks like Reykjavik is a good place to try to see northern lights but thought I would see if there is anyone out there with relevant experience / knowledge on this.
We are from Canada; I think that we can manage Iceland in January, we will just dress warmly and in layers and buy lovely Icelandic woolen knits if we need more warmth!

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