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Milan to Bologna: Train Time

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I am traveling to Italy in June. I arrive in Milan Linate at 15:00. The Linate website states I can take a bus from the airport to the Central train station - buses leave at 30 minute intervals.

The Trenitalia website has trains to Bologna leaving at 10 minutes after each hour.

Assuming the plane arrives on time (and our luggage is carry-on only), what would be a realistic train departure time? Could we make the 16:10 train? Or is 17:10 more realistic?

Or is it foolish to book the train in advance because flight arrivals are too unpredictable?

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