If Greece exits

Old Jun 29th, 2015, 07:25 AM
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If Greece exits

Please excuse my selfish perspective - I am saddened by the mess the Greek people are having to sort thru now. I loved my trip to Greece several years ago and very much hope to return. But if Greece exits the EU - what does that mean to me and all the others that love to travel to Greece? Inflated prices? closed businesses / museums? I guess dealing with a non-euro currency would only be a minor hassle - after all other countries aren't on the euro. But just wondering what might be changing. Thanks!
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 07:41 AM
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Get your crystal balls out...just like in this similar thread.
http://www.fodors.com/community/euro...-in-greece.cfm
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 07:45 AM
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You are rather behind the news, because crushing austerity over 5 years has already closed a lot of businesses in Greece, left nearly half the young people of Greece unemployed and impoverished many of its elderly on reduced pensions, and wreaked what its own government has described -- without contradiction -- a "humanitarian crisis".

The people of Greece (unlike the people of the United Kingdom) have shown little appetite for leaving the European Union. The present "mess" is really about whether Greece will continue to have access to euros through its banking system. For the past years, the "leadership" of the Eurozone countries, in combination with the European Central Bank and the IMF, has made Greek access to euros conditional upon the government's willingness to impose draconian budget cutting and tax hikes on Greek citizens. Earlier this year, the Greek people voted in a government that they hoped would succeed in negotiating a new agreement with those in control of the Eurozone countries.

Since the Eurozone countries were unwilling to negotiate substantively about a change in policy with the Greek government, and have continued to insist on continuing policy measures that keep the Greek economy mired in a depression, the Greek government is calling for a referendum to ask the Greek people if they are willing to continue to accept living under the policies set by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF.

If the Greek people vote 'no", it isn't clear to anybody what will happen. It is possible that Greece will continue to use euros, it is possible they won't. They may or may not remain in the EU. It is a legal and political tangle, as well as an economic one.

If the Greek people vote 'yes," the economically devastating policies of the last 5 years will continue. What will follow politically and socially in Greece is unclear. Historically, what long periods of austerity, depression and unrelieved debt have produced in European nations is fascism, dictatorship and war.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 07:58 AM
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Well, that's one way to look at it!
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 08:05 AM
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"Debt relief" basically means that the taxpayers of the EU will pay the debts of Greece, and that will be a very hard sell in Europe, both in the so-called "virtuous" countries and in the countries that have struggled for years with their own debt. Short of a default, someone will have to repay that debt. Spread over the economies of the entire EU, it wouldn't be a terrible burden, but there's not much confidence that there wouldn't be a new enormous debt in the near future.

I myself think that a gargantuan effort should be made to keep Greece in the currency union, but it will surely run the risk of greatly increasing anti-EU sentiment, which is already close to a boil, in many other countries.

The solutions proffered by Greece rely heavily on raising taxes; a little scepticism is understandable, given the very high levels of tax evasion in the country.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 08:07 AM
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Do you know another way to look at it? Do tell. The original question is confused and kind of amazing for not knowing in what dire shape Greece is right now economically, but does anyone but Ackislander claim to know what is going to happen over the next week? What privileged island to you live on? I assume you are selling this knowledge to somebody or using it yourself to get rich.

As Paul Mason wrote the other, I think quite correctly:

"Either way, Greeks are in for a week of financial pain and chaos. But anybody who thinks they can predict the outcome is wrong."

- See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason....XSN6oiag.dpuf


But enjoy yourself Ackislander. You seem to think this is some sort of funny thing to comment upon.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 08:09 AM
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The whole situation is puzzling to me. The very nature of large land-based political entities is that they tranfer money from rich areas to poor areas decade after decade with no expectation of gain or paybeck, as in the US in this link:

http://wallethub.com/edu/states-most...vernment/2700/

Greece should get debt forgiveness.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 08:29 AM
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When you've got a hopelessly insolvent debtor, like Greece, creditors usually recognize that they aren't getting all their money back, and agree to some level of "haircut" in hopes that the debtor can pay back some of the money. The only reason EU taxpayers would be on the hook for this is that they took over the debts that were owed to European banks in 2010, fearing that even a partial Greek default might jeopardize the European banking system. So, EU taxpayers have already bailed out the banks--if Greece is ever to recover and start growing the economy, they are going to have to act like any responsible creditor would in this situation and accept a haircut.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 08:32 AM
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When I read that there have been "high levels of tax evasion" in a country that is now apparently in need of some sort of economic bailout I'd say that is concerning.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 08:40 AM
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hard to believe, but many of us traveled to Greece before the euro existed, as well as the rest of Europe. And some of us still travel to countries that aren't on the euro. I fail to understand why not being on the euro would mean you can't go there. Budget problems closing museums, I could understand, but I haven't been to Greece in a long time so don't know iof they are free or not. If they aren't, the last thing Greece would probably want to do would discourage tourists from coming and losing revenue from museums. IF they are free, they could institute a fee.


By contrast, many people complain about how the euro is bad and raises prices (I think that did happen a little bit, rounding up or something), so to complain losing the euro would raise prices would be new.


I seem to remember a thread on here about someone warning tourists that they could encounter problems with ATM withdrawals in Greece due to the economic problems and they were decried as spreading unfounded alarm. Except that's exactly what is happening from seeing the news today.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 08:45 AM
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Christina

I will repeat here that withdrawals with credit and debit cards issued outside Greece, and payments are allowed without any limits.
The 60 Euro limit per day is applied ONLY to credit cards issued by Greek banks. !

Foreigners have absolutely no problem.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 08:55 AM
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Really, Christina, it would help if you bothered to learn before joining in spreading the false rumors, and then trying discredit those who rightly pointed out they were false rumors.

From today's Forbes magazine:

"The amount of money Greeks can take out of ATMs is limited to 60 EUR per card per day, although holders of foreign bank cards are exempt from this limit – this is to protect Greece’s important tourism industry. "


Also, for those interested in the underlying issues of "Grexit," this also from Forbes:

"What has happened to Greece will be seen by many as due to incompetence and intransigence by the inexperienced Greek government. And it is true that they have made mistakes. They underestimated the determination of the creditor side to enforce existing agreements, and they acted at times in a less than diplomatic manner, angering the other side and making an agreement less likely. But more importantly, the Greek government failed to appreciate that the EU negotiators are not fundamentally concerned about restoring the Greek economy or enabling it to pay its debts. They are only interested in furthering the European project. Overturning the existing agreement and giving in to Greek demands would open the door to similar demands from other distressed Eurozone nations, notably Spain. The shadow hanging over the EU negotiators is Spain’s Podemos party.

But for my money, the bigger fault lies on the creditor side. The fact is that the existing program has abjectly failed to meet its objectives: it has caused a depression in Greece of a similar order to that in the US in the 1930s, while failing to deliver either debt sustainability or renewed competitiveness. Yet the creditors have steadfastly resisted significant changes."

That is an accurate history.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 09:03 AM
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As usual, Krugman is pithy

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/op...rink.html?_r=0
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 09:12 AM
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The whole point of the bailout 5 years ago was for the Greeks to have time to get their house in order.

The Greeks did nothing of the sort.

And thus, today's crisis.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 09:15 AM
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That is an accurate history.

Why is it more accurate than any other opinion, including Ackis ?

I'm European and we took Greece inside Eurozone knowing full well the problems they had.
Among the problems were a big problem on taxes.

Some entire segments of the economy were exempt of taxes (such as shipping - enabling people like Onassis becoming incredibly rich and paying nothing, anotherone is the inability of the Greeks to collect taxes on property - something all other countries do.
So, yes Europe is guilty of having taken Greece on board but Greece is the one that created its own debt, mind you.

As someone said, if I have hope that Greece will somehow cure its system then yes, I'd be ready as a good creditor to drop part of the debt, but why should I invest new money when there is no hope they ever recover ?

Why should I pay for the Greeks when Onassis did not ?
Easy to blame it on Europe and their banks...
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 09:50 AM
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pariswhat

Onassis died years before Greece even entered the EU !!!
The question > is simply ridiculous !!


As for entering the Eurozone, you should perhaps read about what many countries did in order to meet the criteria , including Germany !!!!

If you think Greece is the only problem here you are wrong, because other countries have the same problems , such as Portugal and Spain.... that have NOT recovered from the crisis.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 09:59 AM
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Back to the original question: Nobody talks about Greece leaving the EU. If they give up the Euro currency there will certainly be an inflation in prices for the locals, but as the new currency will be weak the visitor will see even lower prices calculated in Euro or Dollar.

According to all statistics Greece was on a (slow) path to recovery until the Syriza government took over. A small plus in the budget was on the horizon, more investments from outside the country. Sure, unemployment rates went up, income of many people was lower, but that's what happens first if you do reforms in economical structure. The positive results for the people take a longer while.

Since these structure reforms were stopped, even rolled back by the new government, things went downhill again. No point in sending money there anymore. Without those structure reforms it would mean that the other countries of the EU would have to send money with no end.

If the Greeks don't want to reform their economy, make their country attractive for investors, modernise their administration (tax offices in particular!), then they will have to face the consequences. They, too, can only spend the money they have. Not the money of other EU countries.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 10:23 AM
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Practical, non-ideological questions here...

clausar, what effects (if any) are tourists experiencing right now?

Although able to withdraw cash as usual from ATM machines, would they face extraordinarily long lines?

Are most sights/museums/restaurants open for full summer hours? We've run into unexpected restricted hours on past trips and while not a trip-ruining thing, it can be frustrating to surprisingly discover something you really want to see is closing for the day at 2:30pm.
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 10:29 AM
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Ingo--is this the Ingo who used to post on thorntree?
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Old Jun 29th, 2015, 10:43 AM
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TexasAggie,

I haven't witnessed any long lines today, perhaps 6-7 people max. Today was the first day and ATM's were supplied with banknotes after 12 noon. ( I am living in the northern suburbs of Athens)

Life continues as usual, all tourist sights/museums are open , and the major ones have extended opening hours.

Restaurants are open as usually

A tourist would not face any problems, and would probably not notice what is happening in the country.
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