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I know, I know - but when to buy an airfare to Madrid?

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I'll say in advance, I know no one can answer this question authoritatively as there are too many variables. But here goes.

My son is looking into a summer Spanish program in Madrid that runs from late June to late July. He has some flexibility on when he goes, but not lots because he will be on a tight budget. We were looking at flights a few days ago, and $1300-1400 seemed to be about as good as could be done, even with student fares. He's not yet certain he's going to go and probably won't be for another month, so it's too soon to purchase. Based on historical precedent, what might he expect to happen with fares? Do they [often] hold steady or drop this far/close to the date?

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