I have NOT had a lot of experience buying on line but my friend and I are going to Paris the first of November. I have been checking for about a month now. I want a direct, non-stop from San Francisco to Charles de Gaul. The first fares I saw were a bit over 800.00 round trip with taxes etc. I didn't buy and when I checked a couple of weeks ago...Air France and Delta..the ONLY direct from SFO, the flights were about 1,400.00. I almost had a stroke!!!!! Be still my heart!!! I sure as heck didn't buy THAT. So, I was checking yesterday and there is a winter sale and the round trip for me is about 750.00 round trip and my friend is about 735.00 I think. We are flying over together and I am returning home before she is. So...the thing I think I found out is...there really is NO way to predict and you just have to check and check and check and when you see a price you can live with, take it. I signed up for e-mails from Air France so that I would get a notice if they had some "specials" etc. I think with fuel prices like they are etc., I have a fare that's not bad and I'm going to get it and I'm just not going to look anymore. I don't think you get the cheapest flights from the west coast obviously..I have seen now and then the 198.00 flights to european cities but they are almost always from NY or other east coast city and frankly, I think they are probably gone in a flash. So, I'm happy with the fare I'm getting. I just don't think you can predict.

The best fares I have ever gotten have always happened two ways:

1) I booked 359 days out

2) I was fortunate enough to get a sale fare (later than 359 days) for a date when I wanted to travel

This comes up so often and I would really be interested in knowing how anyone/anything can "predict" when fares will be lowest.

We have heard for sometime now that fares will do nothing if not continue to rise.

Sometimes, it helps to know the sale patterns of your favourite airline. For example, Air Canada often has often started sales in late September for the rest of the fall and in late January for the spring. Once one airline posts sale fares, some of the airlines that are competing on the same routes might offer competing fares. Actually, I think it's not unusual for other airlines to have fare sales in the same period - late September and late January fall just after peak travel periods and airlines might be trying to entice people to plan holidays for non-peak periods. There is sometimes another sale period that starts up after spring break/Easter, for travel before the end of June.

If I have some flexibility on my travel dates and I'm not trying to book flights for a peak travel period, I usually try to wait for these sale periods. But if I want to book a trip during a peak travel period (e.g. I need to book a Christmas flight home), I buy a seat when the price looks good and don't wait too long.

I think Kate makes a good point and would like to add that my original post of "359 days out" SHOULD have read 330 days out which is usually the earliest you can book a flight due to airline computer restrictions.

I would also add that sometimes the airline website is the best place to llok for low fares.

I have recently been comparing the costs of flying on an open jaw to and from Europe next Summer and have consistly found prices at some of the consolidator sites to be far more expensive than the prices I've found on various airline sites.

There are actually 4 "official" airline price seasons....LOW (winter) SHOULDER(spring)HIGH (summer) and SHOULDER(Fall).

Of course there are exceptions and sales due to many conditions (cost of fuel,air-lines trying to stay alive etc,etc.) No question that the official seasons are an important factor but one can be lucky by chance.

I strongly doubt that there is a formula that will run counter to the above.

Hi J,

There is no sure formula for finding the lowest fare.

I have found lowest fares 8 mos out, 6 mos out and 3 mos out.

A lot depends on the specific routes.

I check consolidator sites, www.kayak.com and www.mobissimo.com, as well as the airlines.

Where are you ging and when?

The cheapest fares to Europe (from the US)will come out near the end of the year, & typically run through the end of March, beginning April. If you are going in the summer months, get them as soon as you can.

I agree with the poster who said if you find a fare you can live with take it. Then .. quit worrying about it. You will always find someone on the plane who flew for less, someone who flew for more and some who flew free. You just can't dwell on it. This does not matter if you fly from the US to Europe or LAX to Podunk .. at least half the people on the plane will have paid different fares. Of course everyone likes to pay the least, but just don't obsess over it.

Thanks everybody,

Bigal, I agree but it's not a question of seasonal ticket prices, but when to buy those seasonal ticket prices.

Ira, in early June 07. We're looking at flying into Bordeaux or Toulouse, and flying out of Venice.

Our dates are almost 330 days out, and I can live with the prices I'm seeing, so I will probably take Lori's advice and buy very soon, though my natural inclination is to wait until the end of the year and see if they fall a bit.

Three weeks ago the United fare was $811.00 rt IAD-ZRH through AARP for last week of May-first week of June 2007. I bought the tickets yesterday from United for $871.00. That was $10.00 less than what AARP was showing.

It's like buying or selling stock. You do it and don't look back.

johng, I think there's some confusion about the subject of your post. I take you're asking experienced travelers at what point before the flight are the tickets cheapest. Not about when to redeem frequent-flier awards.

The cost of oil is affecting fares now. That may go up or down.

So what happens if you don't get the cheapest tickets?