julies

We are not the type of people who plan our lives out very far ahead of time. In past years I always used to be able to come up with extremely good US to Europe airfares say 3 to 4 weeks before we wanted to depart because I could be a little bit flexible as to dates. This was also frequently for peak season travel. I keep reading about flights being more and more full so that people are now forced to buy way, way ahead of time if they want a decent fare. Is this really true?

I'm asking because we want to take a trip beginning sometime around May 16-20, and we have nothing booked. We have some flexibility as to both dates and destination airport. In today's ticket-selling climate when would I expect to start seeing fares pop up that airlines want to discount and dump? Or, don't they do that any more and should I just assume that now one needs to plan a long time out if one wants good fares? Thanks.

Gardyloo

September 11 arguably accelerated a trend in the airline business that was already underway, that is consolidation of international carriers (transatlantic types.) And there's been a proliferation of short-haul and/or "low cost" carriers, especially in Europe and Asia, that has continued pretty much unabated throughout the last 10 years or so.

The result is that there have been more seats available for domestic/shorthaul pax and relatively fewer for longhaul/intercontinental pax. The airlines have been scrambling to add capacity on the longhaul routes, but many of them have been cash-strapped and/or victimized by poor management/financial/labor conditions, as well as usury by the oilies, so that they couldn't afford to invest in new planes or bases. Result = higher costs and higher fares. Even with terrible exchange rates, people appear willing to pay higher costs for transatlantic travel, and who are the airlines to argue with that?

That said, as a percentage of income and inflation adjusted, flying is not that much more expensive now than in the past; in fact I saw an article this morning that the average ticket price sold in the US in 2006 was still less than the average ticket sold in 2000, this despite the current cost of fuel.

To get to your point, the airlines use some pretty sophisticated systems to optimize yield on their flights, so you will see some incongruities from time to time. Buy a ticket 6 months out and you may pay more than if you buy it 6 weeks out. But then again, it's a crapshoot; you could just as well see prices 30% - 50% higher for the 6 week horizon than the 6-month. Do you feel lucky? It's a big game of chance, unless you happen to be a programmer for the tariff department of some big airline.

Right now, there are "sales" on by the likes of British Airways for Europe travel in the spring. And in some markets those fares may well last into the summer or fall. Or they may be short-lived sales, to be replaced by gouging ones. As with all things, one trades off flexibility for safety.

Mid-May is no longer much of a "shoulder season," any more than is September. For the cheapest fares, think February.

ira

Hi J,

Airlines have computers that monitor the number of seats sold and compare it to a yield goal.

Prices change daily.

For May, find a price that you like and take it.

Robert2533

Yes, the world of international travel has certainly changed, at least for a number of airlines that have adopted a new business plan, a plan designed to make money.

I just checked the difference in the cost of a flight from Seattle to Madrid in mid-April that I had booked in late February. The cost of the same coach class ticket today had gone up by nearly $500 dollars and there are only a few seats left. The same holds true for a flight booked in June. The price of a coach seat has gone up as seats are booked and they have eliminated many of the upgradeable seats, holding them until the last minute. The cost of an upgrade has also gone up. US Airways is now charging $500 each way for an upgrade to/from Europe, which is the difference in the price of a standard coach fare and the supposedly upgradeable (mileage) coach ticket. So using miles to upgrade becomes irrelevant and being a loyal frequent flyer with one airline has become nearly pointless.

The airlines are offering fewer seats at the cheaper fares several months in advance and the closer you get to your departure date, the fewer seats there are. Fewer available seats translate into higher ticket prices. It’s a business model that used to be called “supply and demand”. Basically, the day of the last minute discount ticket is a thing of the past.

traveller2007

I never know the formula! I got a ticket to the USA at 1 days notice recently for an amazingly low price. Then I bought a flight 3 mths in advance for the USA and paid exactly twice the price Id paid for the 1 days notice flight! I always think it depends on the time of year. Im going in May and its always going to be more than going in, say mid- January. I think eventually you just have to go with the flow and just buy it. With all the eco-chat going on about carbon emissions Im starting to feel guilty in general anyway!

robjame

julies - a number of us pointed you to very competitive rates in your last post on this subject.
I gave you a resonse of " Air Canada from La Guardia thru Montreal to Paris on May 16, return May 30 for $590 per ticket, all in."
You didn't even respond to our posts...
What's up?

julies

Robjame--

Sorry if I offended you. My life at home and work has been crazy recently. Guess I didn't respond because LaGuardia doesn't do me any good since I live in Minneapolis.

robjame

No offense julies - didn't know if you are still looking or just making an observation about fares.
Where do you usually fly out of?