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Northern Lights at Banff National Park in Winter?

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I am planning a trip for either mid-January or first week of March 2013, the main goal is to see the northern lights and the original plan is to fly to Fairbanks, Alaska (from New Jersey) for a 4-day trip. But now I am looking into a week-long trip at Banff and Jasper National Parks instead, because it seems there would be more stuff to do, in addition to seeing the northern lights (and it would be shorter flight from NJ flying into Calgery). I know there is no guarantee that we would be able to see it at either place, but what are the chances of seeing it at Banff/Jasper that time of the year? Is it so low that we should not even consider it?

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