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Churchill MB Best Wildlife Viewing Season

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I am considering a trip to Churchill, either in August to see Beluga Whales, or in November to see Polar Bears. What is the likelihood of actually seeing a whale or bear during 2 days of tour there? Or is it possible to be out for 8 hours and not see even one polar bear in November?
Also, I heard that the polar bear tours in October/November tend to fill up fast, so one would need to book six months ahead. Is that true? If it is, is it the actual day tour that goes out out to the tundra that fills up, or is it the accommodations?

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