Kathie

The Aug 6 edition of the New Yorker has an excellent article on the recent political changes in Burma entitled "The Burmese Spring" by Evan Osnos. Recommended reading for those of you who have been to Burma and those who are considering going.

520

It is a very fine piece. I'd somehow missed it in last week's NYer, but a pal told me about it just yesterday and read it last night. Fascinating the psychological adjustments the Burmese of all levels are having to make.

Also continues to be deeply troubling how little international attention is being paid to the government's treatment of the Rohingya--and, it appears, by many of the other ethnic groups. It sounds perilously close to genocide.

Kathie

The junta was long a practitioner of genocide, which seemed to be their approach to the problems of the many ethnic minority groups who wanted more autonomy. What is happening now is a mere shadow of the previous atrocities. The most active fighting right now is with the Kachin.

You might be interested in the book list I prepared before our 2009 trip:
http://www.fodors.com/community/asia...-bookshelf.cfm

So many excellent books about Burma!

520

I do know about the junta's long history of atrocities and their fighting with the Kachin, although I thought there have been recent reports that it's diminishing somewhat. What's disturbing is how the international community chooses to disregard the current situation vis-a-vis the Rohingya while lifting sanctions and establishing diplomatic relationships. But who am I to say anything as we continue to plan our trip....

Thank you for the book list. Very impressive. I have several of them and was given another that's recently been published in the U.S. and you may be interested in: THE LADY AND THE PEACOCK Peter Popham.

Kathie

The situation is very complex, as you well know. Things are much better than they were, which is not to say that there isn't fighting with various ethnic groups. I think the international community felt that this was an opportunity to move forward, as things have improved greatly. If they waited until all of the fighting has stopped, it would never happen. Having a relationship with Burma gives countries more leverage to push for changes in exchange for aid or loans or technical assistance, etc..

520

Good points, Kathie, although as I mentioned in the exchanges on the NYTimes article, I've heard/read varying degrees of skepticism about the likelihood that the Burmese administration will stay the course. But it would seem that there is too much to lose by not. I just read that Coca Cola AND Pepsi are going to be entering the Burmese market. Once that happens, how could the Burmese possibly reverse the movement forward?!!!

Kathie

Yes, I'm skeptical as well, knowing what I do about the history. But things have changed so much in such a short time, I think the government would be faced with open rebellion if they tried to turn back the reforms they have made. And the western world reinstating severe sanctions would be hard for the government to take... like withdrawing Coke and Pepsi after they've had a taste... lol.

520

Agreed. Although we've all seen that open rebellion isn't necessarily a preventive to government
repression!

The rapidity of change is fascinating--and, in many ways, inspiring. Skeptical optimism--if they're not mutually exclusive!

Craig

Great article. True change will come slowly but it seems that things are rapidly heading in the right direction.

Hanuman

The current government of Burma is enjoying the new found wealth that the is being pumped in. As far as I know no new mid to large scale businesses in Burma are own by entrepreneurs who are not involved with the junta.

Your example of Pepsi and Coke will have local Myanmar companies as the owner while the parent US companies will only act as Licensor or Franchisor. Very likely that the local company will have very close link to the junta if not own by them.

As someone who has "looked" at investing in Myanmar, I can tell you that it is almost impossible to do business there unless you take care of the generals. New laws are being created and passed in the Myanmar government every week to accommodate the rush to invest there.

So IMO by letting Ang San have some freedom, in her late 60s, they have created the perfect wealth generating machine. IMO unless a new government is formed by Aung San's party the money is going to the junta.

520

Diamond Plus will be acting as the distributer. Since it has, supposedly been doing business in Myanmar for the past 50 years, I'm sure the generals will be getting a very nice percentage.

Your analysis makes a lot of sense. Perhaps, however, the ancillary benefits of the country opening up will also provide more possibilities for the lives of many more Burmese to improve than would have been possible without the current rush to invest. Hard to have any illusions about the generals.

Kathie

Hanuman, I'm sure you are right. But as a taxi driver in Yangon said to me, "I don't think the people would care who is running the country if their lives were better." My hope is that opening up economic development will make the common people's lives better.

It's also notable that Myanmar has implemented a visa on arrival for business visas - thhey want that foreign money pouring in.

Hanuman

Hundreds of thousands of Burmese working in Thailand, legally and illegally, have returned home at the urging of Aung San. Those working legally here were paid the minimum wage in Thailand and those working illegally here were paid around 3/4 of the minimum wage. We are seeing a small amount of those that returned to Burma are coming back but most are still staying put. I do hope that things will improve in Myanmar but if the workers start to return to Thailand in numbers then that will be a bad sign.

crosscheck

I'm on a plane and finally had time to read the piece, which I agree was excellent - impressively comprehensive, with nice details - probably one of the few places in the world where they haven't heard of blogging. Just the fact that it was published is a sign that the times are changing. 520 and Hanuman, love the economic perspective, will be interesting to see how investor interest plays out.

Have you seen the Cola Wars piece in the WSJ?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...954202652.html

Hanuman

The Thai owners of Coke and Pepsi have started enlarging their factories or production capacities already. With the ASEAN trading pact goods can be tranship at zero or very low duties from member countries. Good for us!

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/...hai-investment