What's going on with international prices & what is last minute for fares?

Guess I should also clarify that the two places I mentioned aren't the only locations we are interested in. I've actually been looking at about 8 or 10 different places because we are the type of people who have so many places we want to visit that we often make our decision based on airfares.

I'm no expert but I think they are still recovering their losses from last year's astronomical oil prices, hence high fuel prices. As a result of that most airlines have cut back on routes. This makes their remaining flights are much more full. Since there are fewer flights available overall they can charge more.

This is just my theory, I am not an economist.

I think P_M is right. Capacity is down; demand is up. The economy is still bad, but more people are traveling this year than they were last year at this time. Airfares are higher this year than they were last year. You are still looking at traveling during a peak time of the year. Even the normally reasonably priced airfares to Europe over the winter go up the week between Christmas and New Year's.

I'd hoped this winter would be my chance to have a week in Paris on the cheap. I was picturing airfares of $500 or so, but they have not materialized. I can't take the daily checking anymore, so I used miles for one ticket (needed just 35K on USAirways for travel in January or Februaury) and bought the other for -- gulp -- $772. I had a little voucher from United for $75, which brought the price down a bit.

But $775?! For January?!!

Yikes.

Wondering what the price tag will be for another trip in May....

1. Load factors (percent of available seats filled) is up 3% year-over-year. This can be a result of fewer seats, more pax, or both.

2. December 2008 - Spot crude oil price, US$32.94/bbl. Yesterday - $77.43.

$775 to Paris in January. That is horrible because I know we've paid a lot less than that in Jan. and Feb. !

Gardyloo--

Now I'm even more confused. Last year's oil prices were high, and now you are saying that this year's are more than twice as high as last year? Or, am I missing something here?

Jeff--

I was using my examples to show tht in past year's we have also travled during the peak demand times, but certianly not on the most expensive days within the range, and found reasonable priced tickets.

All--I think what I am hearing might be that I shouldn't expect price drops in the upcoming weeks.

Last year's oil prices were very volatile and they topped out in July around $140/barrel. The is when the airlines were hemorraging cash and started cutting routes. By the end of the year prices had plummeted, but the airlines still lost tons of money overall in 2008. Yesterday's price was indeed $77.43. This is still high in historical terms but not as crazy as last year.

I suppose the blunt answer, julies, is that was last year, this is this year. You can't make comparisions. I do understand your thought processes though. I've traveled to Europe winters in the past and paid $400-$500. In the back of my mind, I still think in those terms and am surprised when I see fares a lot more.

I would not wait too long to book something. No one can predict what will happen to airfares in the next few weeks. I can't guarantee anything, but, personally, I would not expect them to go down. If you wait too long, maybe even those $700-$800 fares will disappear and you'll have only higher prices to choose from.

I have been watching fares to Paris for months. IMHO $700 is the new low. Don't expect much lower.

The airlines have wised up as others have pointed out. LOTS fewer flights. For example Delta used to have about three or four non-stops a day ATL to London Gatwick. Now... it's ONE! That's a LOT of seats gone and a lot less pressure on the airline to sell at any price to fill that plane.

Folks the airlines have been bleeding red ink forever. They aren't making money on the $700 fares. To expect them to keep flying at a loss just doesn't make sense! It's not logical to assume they will be willing or able to continue to fly us for fares that don't make money. I enjoy cheap fares too, but

Not only are the airlines cutting back schedules, they are elimination more and more routes. Along with very few non-stop flights these days, some of the connections are positively ridiculous.

When sales decline and expenses skyrocket, most business are so slow to react that they are forced to make drastic cuts to break even are are very slow to recover losses.

And, at the moment, it's best to shop not only air fares, but also exchange rates.

It seems like prices to Asia are cheaper than to Europe right now.

WSJ today carried an article stating that fares are not likely to go down, may go up, a result of a change in the supply/demand ratio as capacity has been cut.

Read an article that in 1970 a typical cross country (USA) fare would be around $300. That's $1600 today.
When I look at the losses almost all the US carriers incur, I wonder how there is an airline industry left in the US. It's great to get a deal, but put these fares into historical context and you'll realize just how great they are.
I fly Monday SFO-JFK on VX, return Thursday (so no Saturday stay) and its $259.29 total. $0.10 a mile.

5c per mile (round trip.)

For February, I got SEA-MEX for $336 USD all-in, and then I applied a Delta voucher for $100, making it $236. Continental is a similar price. So I think MEX is a pretty good deal right now in general, but it is not a good deal at Christmas (I am also going then, but I used points). Most likely, it won't happen to get a great deal for Christmas, but you can always keep watching and hoping.

Another possibility is to do what I did last year. I had a free ticket from United (from being bumped) for travel within the United States. I wanted to go to Mexico. I flew to El Paso, and although my original plan was to take a budget flight from Ciudad Juarez across the border, that budget airline went broke. So instead I took the bus from El Paso to Ciudad Juarez to Zacatecas.

However, it's a much shorter bus ride to fly into San Antonio, TX and take the bus to Monterrey, and I have been told Monterrey and Saltillo are very worthwhile destinations. You can fly into Laredo, TX and have an even shorter bus ride.