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Waitlisted...Should I hold my breath?

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I had originally booked a United flight to Hawaii many months ago using Saver-level miles for First Class (only 40k), and I'm now trying to change my mid-Feb 2012 flight to be two days earlier. I'm told there are no longer any Saver awards available at that level (makes sense), so I asked if I could switch to Economy which is showing online for 40k Standard awards. If I did that, I would have to pay to redeposit the miles into my account, and then pay again to re-book in Economy since the flight is ~3 weeks out. The UA reservations agent was kind enough to put me on a "waitlist" for the first class seats on my desired date which, if granted, wouldn't cost me any $$ because it's simply a date change and no change to the routing. BTW...this was a one-way booking, my return flight is a separate ticket.

So, the point of all this is...what would you guess my chances are of the waitlist being granted? I know only the UA-computer gods can really answer this question, just curious if people have had luck with being waitlisted in a similar situation on United?

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