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Travel is 8 weeks out-should I buy a plane ticket or wait?

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I plan on traveling from Seattle to Madison, WI Aug 20-21 and the prices for tickets are outrageous. Flights are around $415-$500 whereas last fall when I took the same trip it was around $350. I missed out on a deal a few weeks ago where I could have gotten the flight for $280.

I just did a search on Kayak and it said to wait as there is 70% confidence that prices would fall in the next 7 days. Do you find these predictions to be true? Is there a point so many weeks out from your trip that prices will go down significantly? I almost bought a ticket yesterday for $415 and now the flight I was going to take is up to $485. I am afraid to wait any longer but I also feel like prices will go down.

Any advice?

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