I just read on Jackson Looseyia's blog that the cheetah numbers are dwindling (a sad side effect of strong lion prides) are the majority of the ones left (out of 12 he counted in Dec) are in the Naiboisho area.

There are no guarantees of fantastic cheetah sightings, especially for 2-3 nights.

The stats show fewer cheetahs in the Mara lately and my own observations have backed that up. But I'd bet you see at least one cheetah in 2-3 days and there's always something of interest happening in the Mara.

I'm off to Rekero and Mara Plains camp next week and have been reading the various blogs. It does look like Cheetah numbers are suffering but I am not so sure its down to lion numbers which have always been very high in the Mara . On the other hand, leopard sightings seem better than I can ever recall. The grass is apparently very long but I m sure it will still be a great trip - and vehicle numbers will be a fraction of what you saw in August. Weather forecast is also positive for what is historically the driest and sunniest month of the year...

Rekero and Entim are both in the Reserve, so you can expect more vehicles if staying at either of these, rather than if at Naiboisho will less camps/vehicles. That said, February isn't August when everyone is at river crossings and too many vehicles at individual sightings. However, February is a prime travel period for visitors from Europe and their children have school breaks during this time.

But with these small camps, the guides are good at waiting for the throngs to move on, you return and have whatever there is to see, all to yourselves.

As to the number of cats... well, it beats me. But then you might get as lucky as I did a few years back (not Feb, but early-June) to come upon a leopard on a termite mound just waiting for me and guide from Entim. A complete surprise, as from a distance we both thought it would be a cheetah... so you can imagine our surprise... better, that there was not another vehicle for miles.

I'm sure with 3/nights you'll find cats. Good luck!

I've just been in the Naboisho Conservancy during the first week of Feb - very quiet indeed, with virtually no other visitors. The reserve itself was somewhat busier, with a few people at Rekero, but most of the 17 vehicles we saw hounding two cheetahs last Sunday were from a large party down from Nairobi who had taken over main Governor's Camp for the day. We saw four cheetah brothers in Olare Orok Conservancy out of Porini Lion camp.

Richard

On the grass question, there was a lot of rain in November and December, but it's been largely dry since then. Last week many areas were a sea of steadily drying red oat grass, roughly half a metre to a metre high.

Richard

I have just come back from a week in the Mara- 3 nights in Mara North and 4 in Naboisho (at the Kicheche camps). From Naboisho I went into the reserve (mainly the Talek area) for one day.

The grass is quite high all over.

I saw a lot more cats in Mara North and in my one day in the reserve than Naboisho. However, vehicle numbers were a lot lower in Naboisho, and unfortunately high vehicle numbers is somewhat of a double edged sword. I don't think we would have seen half of the sightings we had in Mara north if it hadn't been for the other vehicles. For example, there is a cheetah with a small cub which we saw on several occasions, but each time we just drove to the right area and looked around to see a parked vehicle and bingo! Now, if we'd had to search around the area ourselves we might well never have found it. Ditto for the leopard and cub that we saw on our first drive.

Although Mara North and the main park were busier than Naboisho, it wasn't too awful- maybe 6 or 7 vehicles per cat sighting in both MN and the reserve, and certainly nowhere near 30 (or even 17!).

If you want a cheetah and cub, go to Mara North. The one I saw last week was only 2-3 months old and they are not going to be very mobile at the moment so if you are going soon I imagine there's a good chance they'll still be around. We also saw cheetah (mum and 2 older cubs) in the main reserve.

The camp managers and guides also commented that the wildebeest were about to start calving and apparently this attracts cheetah.

We had plenty of sun, too. Barely a cloud in the sky let alone rain.

@Richard T - How very disturbing about the "17 vehicles hounding two cheetah's". What exactly was going on? This type of action makes my blood boil. I don't know what is considered Governor's Main Camp - Mara Triangle or Narok side? Doesn't really matter - because what their Driver's were doing is totally wrong, wrong, wrong. Even as stated above 6 or 7 vehicles are about 4 or 5 too many! Rant over